CARMEN REINHART AND KENNETH ROGOFF IN A TIME OF FISCAL AUSTERITY: A CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF THE EXPANSIONARY AUSTERITY THEORY

Abstract

In this paper, we provide a critical analysis of the theory of the expansionary austerity. We take the hotly debated contribution by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff on the supposedly negative relationship between public debt and economic growth (when the debt-to-GDP ratio overcomes the 90 percent threshold) as the starting point of our analysis. We then move to analyze those contributions that more directly point to the possible expansionary outcomes of tough fiscal retrenchments. We eventually criticize the main conclusions of the expansionary austerity theory by presenting a simple short-run theoretical model. We show that fiscal consolidation might have expansionary outcomes only under pretty extreme, or very specific and uncertain circumstances. Expansionary austerity would hardly take place in the context of monetarily sovereign economies, or in presence of an accommodative monetary policy like that implemented by the ECB since late 2011, or into economic systems that are poorly integrated on international goods markets.