Immagine di copertina

PREVISIONI INCERTE DECISIONI DIFFICILI

Elisa Guagenti Grandori

Abstract

This work focuses on decision problems concerning risk reduction in the case of catastrophic events, which are scarsely predictable but associated to severe expected damage. A cryterium is outlined in order to judge the relative credibility of competing models. The knowledge-decision process is dissected in its components. The steps of the procedure from knowledge to final decision are analyzed. The effectiveness of short-term prediction and the choice of the acceptable risk are also discussed. A few case studies, related to earthquakes, landslides and pollution, are exposed.

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Submitted: 2015-07-23 10:56:55
Published: 2015-07-23 11:07:07
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