PREVISIONI INCERTE DECISIONI DIFFICILI

Autori

  • Elisa Guagenti Grandori Politecnico di Milano, Milano

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.4081/scie.2014.173

Abstract

This work focuses on decision problems concerning risk reduction in the case of catastrophic events, which are scarsely predictable but associated to severe expected damage. A cryterium is outlined in order to judge the relative credibility of competing models. The knowledge-decision process is dissected in its components. The steps of the procedure from knowledge to final decision are analyzed. The effectiveness of short-term prediction and the choice of the acceptable risk are also discussed. A few case studies, related to earthquakes, landslides and pollution, are exposed.

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Pubblicato

2015-07-23

Come citare

Grandori, E. G. (2015). PREVISIONI INCERTE DECISIONI DIFFICILI. Istituto Lombardo - Accademia Di Scienze E Lettere - Rendiconti Di Scienze, 148. https://doi.org/10.4081/scie.2014.173