LA PROVA STATISTICA NEL PROCESSO PENALE

Abstract

A general topic is faced in the first three sections, i.e. the role of objective and subjective probabilities in trials, the determination of conditional probabilities, and Bayes’ formula (or theorem); the last topic is a fundamental device which allows the computation of probabilities of possible causes, given related information about certain effects. Strictly connected to this argument is the «fallacy of the transposed conditional», which usually implies an unwarranted assumption of guilt. The fifth section is devoted to a discussion of some main features of two famous trials, those of Alfred Dreyfus in France and of Sally Clark in U.K., in which the above fallacy is clearly recognized. The final section presents kinds of trials which require a judgment about groups of people; the statistical methods applied in these cases pertain to the so-called tests of significance.